1
00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:09,080
At £20, 30, 40,
£50 - that's yours, OK?

2
00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:12,279
You thought deciding to
watch this programme

3
00:00:12,279 --> 00:00:16,080
was a logical, rational decision
made with free will.

4
00:00:17,679 --> 00:00:19,480
This man says you're wrong.

5
00:00:21,599 --> 00:00:26,360
You think you can easily
choose the picture you prefer.

6
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,039
These researchers say you
almost certainly can't.

7
00:00:30,039 --> 00:00:32,999
I don't know, he looks a
little bit like a Hobbit.

8
00:00:32,999 --> 00:00:38,679
You think this is the first time
you've seen this TV documentary?

9
00:00:38,679 --> 00:00:42,359
But this man says you might
have well have seen it before -

10
00:00:42,359 --> 00:00:46,239
because of your ability
to look into the future.

11
00:00:46,239 --> 00:00:48,320
To look into the future.

12
00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,320
To look into the future.

13
00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:57,680
Making decisions, even simple ones,
is a tricky process

14
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,319
and you're very, very bad at it.

15
00:01:00,319 --> 00:01:02,399
That, and that.

16
00:01:02,399 --> 00:01:08,559
Thank goodness, for this man, who's
going to rescue you with maths.

17
00:01:08,559 --> 00:01:11,759
You have almost like a
95% chance with this girl.

18
00:01:11,759 --> 00:01:14,439
It looks like maybe you
could buy those shoes.

19
00:01:14,439 --> 00:01:17,559
Really? Would you buy them?
That's the right answer.

20
00:01:17,559 --> 00:01:22,040
So, congratulations on finding
yourself watching this programme.

21
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,999
It might well be the best
decision you've ever made.

22
00:01:24,999 --> 00:01:29,759
...is greater than one, you'd be
better off watching Horizon.

23
00:01:29,759 --> 00:01:32,400
Oh, thanks so much
for working that out for me!

24
00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,080
We're all faced with
thousands of decisions every day

25
00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:56,400
and, according to science, the
choices we make are often bad ones.

26
00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,120
Most of the time we're behaving
in the flow of the moment,

27
00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:04,239
we're faced with this
uncertain world and we're doing
our best and often we're wrong.

28
00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:10,840
Our grip on reality is not always
as tight as we'd like to think.

29
00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:15,159
We think we have a stronger
awareness of our surrounding

30
00:02:15,159 --> 00:02:19,440
and our choices and the reasons for
our actions than we actually have.

31
00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:22,359
But there is hope.

32
00:02:22,359 --> 00:02:26,640
The same science that identified
the problems can also help.

33
00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,719
It works, it does.

34
00:02:30,719 --> 00:02:32,280
If I don't use it,

35
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,240
I often make
the wrong decision.

36
00:02:36,039 --> 00:02:40,160
In this programme we're going to
show you how to be more rational

37
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:43,280
and deal with some of life's
biggest decisions.

38
00:02:52,839 --> 00:03:00,519
These men are computer enthusiasts,
engineers and rocket scientists,
and they've got a problem.

39
00:03:00,519 --> 00:03:05,440
I feel like a creative person
who's been logically trained
through my engineering degree.

40
00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,279
I'm interested in how things work
and taking things apart.

41
00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:15,399
Even with an average IQ of...quite a
lot, none of them has a girlfriend.

42
00:03:18,039 --> 00:03:23,559
I'm the president of a LAN gaming
group, where a bunch of guys
get together and play games.

43
00:03:23,559 --> 00:03:26,199
My favourite ones are
strategic-type games.

44
00:03:26,199 --> 00:03:28,440
I like ruling the world.

45
00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,040
Those are the fun-type games.

46
00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,040
Are there lots of girls that
come into your group? No.

47
00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:40,280
The guys have decided to turn
their backs on the single life.

48
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:44,519
The trouble is, they've spent years
deciding to play computer games

49
00:03:44,519 --> 00:03:50,439
that deciding how to approach
a potential partner
is proving...difficult.

50
00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:06,999
Happily, we've found a man who
can help, and what's more,
he speaks their language.

51
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:14,200
Mathematician Garth Sundem believes
he can solve complex human problems,

52
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,680
like deciding on a
suitable girlfriend, using numbers.

53
00:04:21,399 --> 00:04:24,879
Decision-making and mathematics,
it's strange,

54
00:04:24,879 --> 00:04:27,600
they share exactly
the same language.

55
00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:31,959
You have a problem
that you want to solve
and you look at the factors

56
00:04:31,959 --> 00:04:36,120
that you are going to weigh against
each other to solve this problem.

57
00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,319
It's really the same language.

58
00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,959
This perfect relationship led Garth
to write a book of equations

59
00:04:46,959 --> 00:04:51,320
for every tricky
situation life has to offer.

60
00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:55,399
He thinks that if you really want to
come to a truly logical conclusion,

61
00:04:55,399 --> 00:04:58,040
you need to weigh up all the factors

62
00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,640
and make them interact,
using algebra.

63
00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:08,320
My chances of getting a date with
someone would depend on factors like
how attractive, you know, you are.

64
00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:12,799
How attractive they are,
that would be an obvious ratio
comparison right there

65
00:05:12,799 --> 00:05:15,320
that would affect your chances
of getting a date.

66
00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,679
Tonight,
Garth is offering his services

67
00:05:23,679 --> 00:05:30,320
to Levi, John, Cal and Chris, who
are putting their faith in maths.

68
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:37,560
The needy nerds are on a mission -
to make friends with a lady,
a real one, in a bar.

69
00:05:38,919 --> 00:05:40,719
# Ah, chocolate girl

70
00:05:40,719 --> 00:05:42,999
# Well, you're looking like
something I want

71
00:05:44,319 --> 00:05:46,160
# Finding out true love
is blind... #

72
00:05:46,599 --> 00:05:48,759
OK, so you guys have
all been downstairs.

73
00:05:48,759 --> 00:05:53,159
There's someone you're
thinking about. We're gonna
figure out your chances.

74
00:05:53,159 --> 00:05:55,280
We're gonna see
what the maths says.

75
00:05:55,280 --> 00:05:58,400
How witty a conversationalist
are you, from one to ten?

76
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,599
I'm fantastically witty. I'd
probably give him a ten on the...

77
00:06:01,599 --> 00:06:04,080
Would you give him a ten?
OK, we'll give him a ten.

78
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,000
The "Do I stand a chance
with her?" equation

79
00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,279
is split into sections -
social skills like conversation,

80
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,400
levels of previous contact,
and, crucially, attractiveness.

81
00:06:19,999 --> 00:06:22,640
How attractive is this guy?
Eight. An eight.

82
00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,599
We'll give him an eight.
He's a cutie.

83
00:06:25,599 --> 00:06:28,319
Now, how attractive is she,
on a scale of one to ten?

84
00:06:28,319 --> 00:06:31,440
Seven and a half.
Do you want to call that
a seven or an eight?

85
00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,399
Seven. OK, seven.

86
00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:40,520
The attractiveness ratio
is a key factor that
drives the whole equation.

87
00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:48,080
As the boy becomes more attractive
relative to his love interest,
so his overall chances improve.

88
00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:52,760
Here we got 1, 1.4, we're going to
pretty much call this 9, 35 -

89
00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,399
you have almost a 95% chance
with this girl.

90
00:06:55,399 --> 00:06:59,160
What really drove that
is the fact that you are actually

91
00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:04,799
more attractive than this girl, you
are a very witty conversationalist -
you're pretty much like a dream guy.

92
00:07:04,799 --> 00:07:07,399
Does that sound right to you guys?

93
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,679
The remaining guys
are also subjected
to Garth's geek logic system

94
00:07:17,679 --> 00:07:21,159
and given their personal
likelihood of success.

95
00:07:21,159 --> 00:07:24,999
OK, are you ready for the math?
No, I don't want math.

96
00:07:24,999 --> 00:07:28,400
You don't want to do the math.
No, I can do it on my own! OK.

97
00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:32,960
No math to mess up your Jedi mojo.
No. OK, go on totally without.

98
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:38,000
So we've got, we've got like 95%,
we got 43%, we got 41%, and we got

99
00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,640
"heck with the per cent,
I'm just going to go do it."
See how it goes.

100
00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,159
Cal, at 95%,
shouldn't have to try too hard.

101
00:08:05,199 --> 00:08:10,559
But Cal's dream girl turns out to
be 95% certain she's not interested.

102
00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:18,560
According to his 41% score John
should be struggling, but he's not.

103
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,000
43% Chris tries his hand at
brutal honesty...

104
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,759
I'm double major, computer science
and computer engineering. Oh, wow!

105
00:08:29,759 --> 00:08:32,120
Yeah, kind of a nerdy guy.

106
00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,919
Soon discovering that it works
a lot better than playing it cool.

107
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,440
In no time at all,
the phone number's in the bag.

108
00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:43,919
5046.

109
00:08:46,359 --> 00:08:49,439
This experiment was meant to see
if the maths could predict

110
00:08:49,439 --> 00:08:54,279
our volunteers' success,
but we've discovered
something more interesting.

111
00:08:54,279 --> 00:08:58,400
Simply analysing the decision
beforehand seems to have given

112
00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:02,480
them the confidence of seasoned
Casanovas, whatever their score.

113
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,439
I'll give you a call.
Well, thanks once again.

114
00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:11,199
In no time at all,
everybody's taking phone numbers...

115
00:09:11,199 --> 00:09:17,120
Everybody, that is, except Levi,
who rejected Garth's magic numbers.

116
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:22,959
He's still got way too
much to think about,
and fails to perform...as usual.

117
00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:30,560
Good evening, success all
around, we got a yes,
yes, yes, yes, yes, right?

118
00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:33,639
No. No? What happened?

119
00:09:33,639 --> 00:09:38,919
I should have followed the math.
You should have followed the math!
Everybody but the no-math guy!

120
00:09:38,919 --> 00:09:41,120
Next time. Next time.

121
00:09:45,439 --> 00:09:49,560
So here in a nutshell is your
guide to logical decision-making.

122
00:09:49,560 --> 00:09:53,319
Identify all the factors
that affect the decision.

123
00:09:53,319 --> 00:09:56,359
Write them down.

124
00:09:56,359 --> 00:09:59,159
Even weight them using mathematics.

125
00:09:59,159 --> 00:10:05,319
And remember, freeing your
mind with maths could help you
become a truly rational person.

126
00:10:12,399 --> 00:10:15,480
But of course
it's not quite that simple.

127
00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:19,119
Problem is that you routinely
come to quite different conclusions

128
00:10:19,119 --> 00:10:24,840
about the same problem
depending on how you look at it,
which isn't very rational at all.

129
00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,479
Pete Firmin is a magician.

130
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,760
He can confuse, misdirect
and bamboozle.

131
00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,000
So 51 are face up, only one is
face down, what was it the seven of?

132
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,799
Seven of hearts. Seven of hearts.

133
00:10:52,799 --> 00:10:54,999
Take it out, turn it face up,

134
00:10:54,999 --> 00:10:57,599
the seven of hearts.

135
00:10:57,599 --> 00:11:00,359
Thanks guys, cheers.

136
00:11:00,359 --> 00:11:06,000
Today, Pete's in London's
Spitalfields Market working for us,

137
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,159
and he wants to give away
our money.

138
00:11:09,159 --> 00:11:13,679
Inside my pocket I've
got 20 quid,

139
00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:18,320
£20, 30, 40, £50 -
feel it, touch it.

140
00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:23,000
You can walk away with that
or if you want to, we could
have a little game of roulette,

141
00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:29,279
50-50 odds, and you could up it
to £50, but if you lose you get
nothing, I get the twenty back.

142
00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:33,279
The decision to take the 20
or gamble is theirs alone -

143
00:11:33,279 --> 00:11:37,479
except that what they don't know
is that Pete is manipulating them.

144
00:11:37,479 --> 00:11:39,839
Even odds. It's a trick.
No, no, it's not a trick.

145
00:11:39,839 --> 00:11:45,159
If you want to, you can walk away...
The way he presents the proposition
is subtly different.

146
00:11:45,159 --> 00:11:47,280
I'm going to give you twenty quid.

147
00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:51,800
In the first case, the
punter is presented with a freebie,
a nice surprise.

148
00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,239
This is called a gain scenario.

149
00:11:55,239 --> 00:11:58,880
Here's 20 quid, you take that.

150
00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,280
You can take that,
you can walk away, it's yours.

151
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:07,360
Go and buy lunch, whatever you want
to do, or you can gamble and maybe
win 50. What do you want to do?

152
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,799
OK - I've got ten, 20, 30.

153
00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:15,519
In the second case, the punter
gets an even nicer surprise.

154
00:12:15,519 --> 00:12:18,000
Real money here.
I've got 50 quid, all right?

155
00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:23,280
That's 10, 20,
30, 40, £50 - that's yours, OK?

156
00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:28,880
But is then almost
immediately presented
with what is called a loss scenario.

157
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,119
I'm going to take 30 of it back.

158
00:12:31,119 --> 00:12:35,800
If you want to win this
you're going to have gamble.
What do you want to do?

159
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:40,040
The outcome to both scenarios
is identical -

160
00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,600
keep 20 or gamble for 50.

161
00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:46,840
We want to see if the decision
to gamble can be affected

162
00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,599
by the way the proposition is made.

163
00:12:49,599 --> 00:12:53,120
I'll gamble.
You'll gamble. I'll gamble. OK.

164
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:57,880
In our rigorously scientific
study in Spitalfields Market,

165
00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:04,480
those who felt they were losing out
were more likely to gamble
to win the money back.

166
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,759
Red does win £50. Congratulations.

167
00:13:06,759 --> 00:13:11,360
As opposed to those punters
who were presented with a gain...

168
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:16,319
Here's 20 quid, all right?
..who decided to stick
with their unexpected good fortune.

169
00:13:16,319 --> 00:13:19,520
I'm going to take the money.
You're going to take the money?

170
00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,400
Well done!
Fair enough, sir, fair enough.

171
00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,919
Without realising it, our
volunteers had decided on risk...

172
00:13:25,919 --> 00:13:28,719
Oh, I'm sorry.

173
00:13:28,719 --> 00:13:31,520
It's a red so I keep the money. ..
Or safety.

174
00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,680
I'm going to walk away. Fair enough,
have it with my compliments.

175
00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:39,160
Simply because of
perception of loss or gain.

176
00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,199
OK, Jessica, now I tell you the
instruction for playing this game.

177
00:13:43,199 --> 00:13:46,880
So you are going to enter in
that scanner. You have two options.

178
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:51,159
One option you can keep for sure £30.
That is a safe option.

179
00:13:51,159 --> 00:13:57,960
Or you can feel, be more risky and
play a gamble in which you can win
all £50 or lose all of them. OK?

180
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:03,480
Benedetto De Martino is performing
the same experiment that we tried
out at Spitalfields Market.

181
00:14:05,479 --> 00:14:11,319
By performing the gambling
experiment in an FMRI scanner
Benedetto is hoping to see

182
00:14:11,319 --> 00:14:16,280
what is going on in the brain of
the person making decisions
in the face of loss or gain.

183
00:14:19,239 --> 00:14:22,640
OK, Jessica, we are
starting now the experiment.

184
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,399
Good luck,
try to make as much money as you can.

185
00:14:26,399 --> 00:14:28,239
Thanks.

186
00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:40,119
Each new loss or gain scenario
is called a frame.

187
00:14:40,119 --> 00:14:45,119
Benedetto's experiment has hundreds
of variations on the theme -

188
00:14:45,119 --> 00:14:49,880
pairs of identical choices
presented in subtly different ways.

189
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,479
Across the board, just as in the
street experiment, the loss frames

190
00:14:57,479 --> 00:15:03,039
produced more inclination to gamble
than the gain frames.

191
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:12,080
This so-called framing effect
was first observed 30 years ago.

192
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:17,039
Psychologists discovered that if
a decision is taken to avoid a loss

193
00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:22,520
it will be a bolder,
more aggressive decision than one
taken to merely achieve a gain.

194
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:32,839
The idea is called Prospect Theory
and explains an awful lot of
apparently irrational decisions.

195
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,680
New York taxi drivers tend to
determine their hours of work
by their earnings.

196
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,920
When they reach their target,
they go home.

197
00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:54,759
Though this seems sensible, it does
reveal a lapse in rational thought.

198
00:15:56,999 --> 00:16:01,719
Because on slow days, the taxi
driver, motivated by the loss

199
00:16:01,719 --> 00:16:06,559
of not reaching the target,
will work for more hours
than on a fast day,

200
00:16:06,559 --> 00:16:12,240
where the gain of greater earnings
once the target
has been quickly reached

201
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,000
does not produce
the desire to continue working.

202
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:20,720
Of course it would be more rational
to work longer on a fast day

203
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,319
and knock off early on a slow day,

204
00:16:23,319 --> 00:16:25,680
but this is nothing
to do with logic.

205
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,999
Perception of loss or gain
drives human decision-making

206
00:16:32,999 --> 00:16:36,839
in every aspect of existence,
from choosing where to live...

207
00:16:39,879 --> 00:16:41,639
..to deciding to go to war.

208
00:16:47,559 --> 00:16:54,439
Prospect Theory observes that we are
not always rational about decisions,

209
00:16:54,439 --> 00:16:59,679
but it was not until
Benedetto scanned his gamblers
that anyone could understand why.

210
00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:08,479
What we found, and what was
already described 30 years ago

211
00:17:08,479 --> 00:17:12,199
by Prospect Theory, is the fact that
people are not completely rational

212
00:17:12,199 --> 00:17:17,279
and also the fact that the emotion,
they play a big role in the decision.

213
00:17:18,959 --> 00:17:22,640
What Benedetto discovered
was that in every case

214
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:28,400
it was the emotional centre of the
brain, the amygdala, which lit up.

215
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,600
On contrary of what is the common
sense that people
that are very rational,

216
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,319
they don't have emotion at all,
we found that every one of us

217
00:17:40,319 --> 00:17:44,199
processes emotion but there are
some people can kind of control this

218
00:17:44,199 --> 00:17:47,999
initial emotional response
that every one of us has.

219
00:17:50,079 --> 00:17:53,719
But Benedetto
discovered something more.

220
00:17:53,719 --> 00:17:56,720
He noticed that there was
a part of the frontal lobe

221
00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,560
that was also active during
the decision-making task,

222
00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:06,080
but the amount of activity varied
dramatically between the volunteers.

223
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:12,759
And what we think this area
was doing was practically
controlling the emotional response.

224
00:18:12,759 --> 00:18:18,840
So everyone has an initial emotional
response, but there are people that
can control these emotional responses

225
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,920
better with their frontal lobe, and
they can just practically approximate

226
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,119
a more rational behaviour,
a more consistent behaviour.

227
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:33,840
The reason that we are able to make
rational decisions at all is because
of our magnificent frontal lobes.

228
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,080
Ours are almost five times
bigger than our closest relatives'.

229
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,840
What's more our unique mix of
brain cell types means that our

230
00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,760
frontal lobes can out-decide
even the greatest great ape.

231
00:18:47,919 --> 00:18:52,920
It's only when they stop working
properly that we truly appreciate

232
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,600
how important our frontal lobes are
to decision-making.

233
00:19:03,719 --> 00:19:07,479
After 200 yards, turn right.

234
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:14,360
Shana Sewell can't make the
kind of spontaneous decisions
that most of us take for granted.

235
00:19:14,360 --> 00:19:18,080
Turn left.

236
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:23,559
Since a brain haemorrhage damaged
her left frontal lobe in 2003,

237
00:19:23,559 --> 00:19:26,880
even a trip to the supermarket
is a nightmare.

238
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:30,120
Turn around when possible.
Right you are.

239
00:19:37,639 --> 00:19:45,159
Shana's brain injury reveals that
making even a simple decision
is in fact complex.

240
00:19:45,159 --> 00:19:51,199
For Shana,
every trivial choice must be
anticipated, analysed and planned.

241
00:19:51,199 --> 00:19:54,319
Tomatoes and cucumber.

242
00:19:54,319 --> 00:19:57,439
Spontaneity is a thing of the past.

243
00:19:57,439 --> 00:20:02,400
The process I have to go through
when I'm food shopping is I start

244
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,680
off with my planning so I feel that
I've got every eventuality covered.

245
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,600
Yeah, that one, please.

246
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:14,880
'I know exactly what I'm getting,
what type of thing I'm getting.'
Chocolate biscuits!

247
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,759
It's not on the list.

248
00:20:16,759 --> 00:20:20,400
Difficulties arise when there's
different offers on.

249
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:26,960
Is it more economical to buy a whole
chicken or buy chicken fillets?

250
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,759
I find it stressful.
No, we don't do, no.

251
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:32,919
I don't like chicken!

252
00:20:32,919 --> 00:20:35,400
I get confused.

253
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:40,119
But it's going to take me longer
to...cook a whole chicken.

254
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,680
Maybe it won't, I don't know.

255
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,760
Anything that is out of routine
causes me problems.

256
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:51,000
Corbin, what do we have when
mummy makes, cooks chicken?

257
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:57,479
The problem is so severe
that every aisle presents the
challenge of a fresh decision.

258
00:20:57,479 --> 00:21:01,840
Imagine having to weigh up all the
pros and cons for types of biscuits.

259
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,719
I'd rather we didn't. Why?

260
00:21:03,719 --> 00:21:05,200
Because...

261
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,800
Or bread. Or grapes.

262
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,560
No,
I don't think they are on the list.

263
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:19,200
Or crisps or mushrooms, or soap
or soup, or toothpaste or anything.

264
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,280
What yoghurts do you want?

265
00:21:29,679 --> 00:21:33,039
Shana has undergone six months
of intensive rehabilitation

266
00:21:33,039 --> 00:21:36,679
where she has been taught to
externalise her decision-making.

267
00:21:36,679 --> 00:21:39,759
I've got the praise if she
doesn't revise. Now I...

268
00:21:39,759 --> 00:21:43,839
..By putting all the options
down on paper.

269
00:21:43,839 --> 00:21:46,839
The cons.

270
00:21:46,839 --> 00:21:49,839
She might rebel,

271
00:21:49,839 --> 00:21:54,239
not only as in having a go at me
but I mean rebel as in
"Oh, I'm not doing it."

272
00:21:54,239 --> 00:21:58,479
The paper strategy works well for
Shana, but it's one that requires

273
00:21:58,479 --> 00:22:00,640
her total concentration.

274
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,039
PHONE BEEPS
Sorry, I'm beeping.

275
00:22:05,679 --> 00:22:11,360
A reminder to take her tablets in
the middle of the decision task
proves to be disastrous.

276
00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:15,600
Time to take your tablet?
Yeah but it beeps early and...

277
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,639
Is that what you're due to take now?
Yeah. Do you need a glass of water?

278
00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:23,840
Yeah, please.

279
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,919
No. Um...

280
00:22:25,919 --> 00:22:27,399
I can take it...

281
00:22:31,079 --> 00:22:36,519
Oh, I don't know my main goal
now, you see, this is not fair.

282
00:22:36,519 --> 00:22:38,040
I should have reset it.

283
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,520
I know!
I'll leave them there to remind me

284
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,280
to take them after...

285
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,560
When we've finished the session
and I've finished showing you...

286
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,519
When I've made my decision.
Back to Chloe's revision.

287
00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:54,599
Yeah to miss an opportunity...

288
00:22:54,599 --> 00:22:58,160
Shana will always have problems with
spontaneous decision-making

289
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,839
but the systematic approach means
she can now get on with her life

290
00:23:01,839 --> 00:23:05,479
even though she sometimes
finds it frustrating.

291
00:23:05,479 --> 00:23:10,279
It takes up a lot of time,
but it works.

292
00:23:10,279 --> 00:23:14,799
It does - if I don't use it, I quite
often make the wrong decision.

293
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:16,920
You're building...

294
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,240
A case. A case for which option?

295
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,960
For option two? Revising, yeah.

296
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,720
Shall we go and take, find a
glass of water for your tablet?

297
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,960
Good idea. Thank you.
All right, thanks very much.

298
00:23:35,239 --> 00:23:38,360
But there's another problem.

299
00:23:38,360 --> 00:23:44,479
These men have discovered
that sometimes your brain
appears to conspire against you,

300
00:23:44,479 --> 00:23:46,760
and no amount of scribbling
can solve that.

301
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,839
Petter Johansson
is forcing people to make decisions.

302
00:24:04,159 --> 00:24:06,159
This one.

303
00:24:06,159 --> 00:24:13,159
It's a simple enough task for most
people, and in fact it isn't the
real point of the experiment.

304
00:24:17,120 --> 00:24:20,240
Why did you prefer that one?

305
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,039
Higher cheekbones,

306
00:24:23,039 --> 00:24:25,400
slightly better hair.

307
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,639
Not much between them.

308
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:35,719
Petter Johansson and Lars Hall
have devised an experiment
which calls into question

309
00:24:35,719 --> 00:24:40,599
many of our assumptions about how we
make most of our everyday decisions.

310
00:24:40,599 --> 00:24:45,720
We're interested to see
what kind of detail,

311
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:51,480
the representations behind peoples'
decisions and what kind of insight
they have about those decisions.

312
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,799
Why did you choose this one?

313
00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:57,440
It looks like it would be someone
with a very interesting personality.

314
00:25:01,319 --> 00:25:07,520
This is all quite boring -
until you look at the experiment
from a different perspective.

315
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,959
We added a twist, a card trick,

316
00:25:10,959 --> 00:25:14,599
so that sometimes they choose one
face but end up with the other one.

317
00:25:14,599 --> 00:25:17,720
Watch carefully.

318
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:21,080
The volunteer chooses
the card on the left.

319
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,600
This one.
But Petter swaps the card, and

320
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:29,319
presents the photo that was seen on
the right and was actually rejected.

321
00:25:29,319 --> 00:25:32,919
It is a card trick,
but it's a cheap card trick

322
00:25:32,919 --> 00:25:37,839
based on something that
the magicians call black on black.

323
00:25:37,839 --> 00:25:42,479
So for each card there is a
hidden card behind it which
is actually the opposite one.

324
00:25:42,479 --> 00:25:48,160
Where we slide the other card over,
the black card is hidden and then

325
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:53,440
Petter just uses his arm
to...slide it down into his lap.

326
00:25:54,999 --> 00:25:57,759
I mean, it's two parts
that's interesting here.

327
00:25:57,759 --> 00:26:01,799
First the fact that they don't
notice when you switch the pictures.

328
00:26:01,799 --> 00:26:05,319
It's interesting in itself
and it's quite, quite surprising.

329
00:26:05,319 --> 00:26:11,680
And the second part is of course the
verbal reports to give that actually
motivate choices they didn't make.

330
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:19,119
80% of the people we tested
had absolutely no idea that
a switch had been made.

331
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:23,160
Again this one just struck me,
interesting shot.

332
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:28,799
Since I'm a photographer, I like
the way that it's lit and looks.
It's a puzzling phenomenon.

333
00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:32,919
This one. Lars and Petter
think that it can only be understood

334
00:26:32,919 --> 00:26:38,000
by looking at our fundamental
relationship with our surroundings.

335
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,759
We rely upon the world.

336
00:26:39,759 --> 00:26:43,719
The world is dependable,
so if you reach for your car keys

337
00:26:43,719 --> 00:26:46,680
you don't
end up with the armadillo in your lap

338
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,880
or something like that.
The one on the left.

339
00:26:52,199 --> 00:26:56,600
It might also be that we
simply can't countenance
our decisions being wrong.

340
00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:01,279
Once we've made up our minds there's
far too much invested to back pedal.

341
00:27:03,039 --> 00:27:08,760
We simply post-rationalise
and pretend that it was a great
choice all along.

342
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,320
He just seemed friendlier.
Friendlier? Yeah.

343
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:20,519
If you want to keep irrational
decision-making at bay,
here's what to do.

344
00:27:20,519 --> 00:27:25,159
Watch out for loss or gain
situations.

345
00:27:25,159 --> 00:27:28,440
Realise that emotions are an
essential part of all decisions,

346
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,920
but try not to let
them get the upper hand.

347
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:39,720
Even if you can't face writing
an equation, at least write down
your options and canvass opinion.

348
00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:46,640
And remember your nasty tendency
to dress up bad decisions
as great ones.

349
00:27:54,360 --> 00:27:59,640
Garth Sundem has taken all these
irrational factors on board in his
quest for the perfect equation.

350
00:28:08,479 --> 00:28:12,279
He's hoping to discover if
his new improved formulae

351
00:28:12,279 --> 00:28:16,519
can help with one of the most
emotional of all human decisions.

352
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,640
These are my favourite so far. OK,
would you like some help deciding?

353
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,919
Well, what is this?

354
00:28:25,919 --> 00:28:29,120
OK I'm coming over here,
so here's what we're going to do.

355
00:28:29,120 --> 00:28:32,679
How attractive would you
consider yourself right now?

356
00:28:34,279 --> 00:28:36,759
I'll give myself a five.

357
00:28:36,759 --> 00:28:38,719
Solid ten.
Solid ten! Then that's like...

358
00:28:38,719 --> 00:28:41,319
In this context, sort of
a Sarah Jessica Parker.

359
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:48,560
In this equation, Garth covers all
the logical considerations like cost

360
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,919
and comfort, but straight away

361
00:28:50,919 --> 00:28:56,679
he's also dealt with
what the shoes will do emotionally
for the purchaser.

362
00:28:56,679 --> 00:28:59,919
I would be a seven with these shoes.
So it changes by at least two?

363
00:28:59,919 --> 00:29:03,920
Yeah. Cool. Say a seven. OK,
bump you up a bunch on that scale.

364
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:08,559
And there's even an interesting
take on Prospect Theory.

365
00:29:08,559 --> 00:29:11,559
Are you seeing anybody right now?

366
00:29:11,559 --> 00:29:13,280
No. Are you, you're...

367
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,839
Are you not married? I am not
married. I'm married. Married, OK.

368
00:29:16,839 --> 00:29:18,840
We're dating. Yes, we are.

369
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,240
Living together? No. OK.

370
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,400
As your relationship status
heads towards marriage,

371
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:30,880
the effect of increased
shoe-based attractiveness ebbs away.

372
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:37,279
The gain of a stable relationship
means that you no longer need to
aggressively pursue risky footwear.

373
00:29:37,279 --> 00:29:43,760
Seven up front,
we've got five over fifteen here
which is a little less than a half.

374
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:49,520
Square root of that is going to be,
I don't know what, like 26ish. I'm
glad you understand this, OK.

375
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,760
It is four over
ten and deserving it at a five...

376
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,719
Unfortunately it's going to
come out a bit below one

377
00:29:55,719 --> 00:29:57,879
so not the day
for those specific shoes.

378
00:29:57,879 --> 00:30:03,079
It's going to turn out greater
than one and it looks like maybe
you could buy those shoes. Really?

379
00:30:03,079 --> 00:30:07,800
Does that sound good, would you
buy them? That's the right answer.
Is that the right answer? Sure.

380
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:12,000
Really? Absolutely. Those are them.

381
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,599
If the math had come out differently
would it have changed your mind?

382
00:30:17,599 --> 00:30:20,240
No, it's just numbers.

383
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,039
I think the equation was
probably a little female-centric.

384
00:30:24,039 --> 00:30:27,759
A lot of the variables in the
equation didn't relate to men.

385
00:30:27,759 --> 00:30:31,239
I think for men it's probably
more of a straightforward process.

386
00:30:33,399 --> 00:30:36,320
So your total is $617.74.

387
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,920
Well, the equation said
I shouldn't buy the shoes,

388
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:46,599
which made the decision a little
easier because they were a little
out of my price range.

389
00:30:46,599 --> 00:30:53,279
I did not buy the green shoes even
though I really, really liked them.

390
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:57,039
So you went against
the recommendation of the maths?

391
00:30:57,039 --> 00:31:02,480
I went against the recommendation
of the maths but I have my own
decision-making system in place -

392
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,640
I'm going to think about it
and if I'm still pining for them
then I'll come back and get them.

393
00:31:12,799 --> 00:31:16,080
So far, so good -
decision-making sorted,

394
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,800
rational strategies put in place
and emotions in check.

395
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,400
But be warned, it gets worse.

396
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,240
Because decision-making has another,
darker element.

397
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:49,200
In 1996, Professor John Bargh
shocked and outraged
his fellow psychologists

398
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:53,040
by publishing studies
which controversially showed

399
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,240
that our decisions can be
subliminally manipulated.

400
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:02,080
I had fruit thrown at me at talks
when I gave these results in the '90s

401
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,199
and they were joking, but I had
apples and oranges lobbed at me

402
00:32:05,199 --> 00:32:07,880
because they thought,
"You're going too far."

403
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,919
I've ceased being surprised
at the results of these studies

404
00:32:11,919 --> 00:32:17,079
but only because
of all the long experience
that these things keep working.

405
00:32:17,079 --> 00:32:22,839
The subliminal effect that rattled
so many cages is called priming.

406
00:32:24,999 --> 00:32:29,520
You're watching television or
watching a movie or reading a book

407
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:34,880
and what's happening in the movie
or TV could be someone doing
something very brave.

408
00:32:41,279 --> 00:32:45,000
And that just by itself activates
ideas and the concept of bravery,

409
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:49,839
and you might be more likely to see
another person as a brave person

410
00:32:49,839 --> 00:32:54,400
or another person
as a kind person or an intelligent
person more than usual,

411
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,160
and more than you would have,
had the prior event not happened.

412
00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,839
That's the nature of priming.

413
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:11,239
Images and even words
slipping thoughts and feelings into
our subconscious is one thing,

414
00:33:11,239 --> 00:33:17,000
but what is more worrying
is how those thoughts and feelings
can then change our behaviour.

415
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:26,199
Today, one of John Bargh's PhD
students is running an experiment

416
00:33:26,199 --> 00:33:29,279
to investigate the priming
effects of temperature.

417
00:33:31,399 --> 00:33:38,120
What we do in our experiment,
we very briefly expose people
to a warm or cold substance.

418
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,200
And what we expect to happen

419
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:45,200
is that simple experience with a
warm substance or a cold substance

420
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,280
will prime people
to sort of activate

421
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:53,520
these feelings of warmth and comfort
and the things that we've learnt
about since we were very young.

422
00:33:56,439 --> 00:33:59,000
'And when we have those things
in mind,

423
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:05,159
'those things we know will colour
people's judgements and decisions
and their behaviours as well.'

424
00:34:05,159 --> 00:34:10,479
Volunteers for the experiment
are asked to hold a warm cup of
coffee as they are met by Lawrence.

425
00:34:10,479 --> 00:34:14,280
They have been primed with heat.

426
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:21,000
The purpose of the experiment is
to record participants' judgments
about Lawrence's colleague Randy.

427
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,920
How was your break?

428
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,679
It was awesome.

429
00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:29,040
It was good
until I got stranded in Florida. What
happened? Because of a snowstorm.

430
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,439
In New York on Friday
so I got stranded.

431
00:34:32,439 --> 00:34:37,359
The theory is that the hot drink
will somehow elicit
positive feelings towards Randy

432
00:34:37,359 --> 00:34:41,240
even several minutes after
experiencing the warmth of the cup.

433
00:34:41,240 --> 00:34:43,800
And here's the killer question -

434
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,999
would you give Randy
a permanent job?

435
00:34:45,999 --> 00:34:51,359
Based on your brief interaction
with Randy, would you hire
him as project manager?

436
00:34:51,359 --> 00:34:54,800
He seemed
like a genuinely friendly guy.

437
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:56,359
So, yeah, I would say so.

438
00:34:56,359 --> 00:34:58,759
Yeah, why not?

439
00:34:58,759 --> 00:35:01,759
Sure. Yes. Yes.

440
00:35:03,399 --> 00:35:12,759
Saying warm and friendly things
about a stranger might just be
the normal polite response.

441
00:35:12,759 --> 00:35:15,120
Will you hold this for a sec? Sure.

442
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,839
Can you hold this for a second?
Sure.

443
00:35:16,839 --> 00:35:18,960
Can you hold this for a second?

444
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:23,720
Except for the temperature of
the drink, identical conditions.
The same conversation with Randy.

445
00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:25,319
How was your break?

446
00:35:25,319 --> 00:35:27,120
It was good.

447
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,200
Are you glad to be back? Not really.

448
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:34,559
And six minutes later,
the same questions from Lawrence.

449
00:35:34,559 --> 00:35:37,119
Based on your brief interaction
with him,

450
00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:41,160
would you recommend him or would
you hire Randy as project manager?

451
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,199
Uh... As a leader?

452
00:35:44,199 --> 00:35:48,560
I'm not sure.
Based on the brief interaction...no.

453
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:52,119
Maybe not from the
impression that I got.

454
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,880
The experiment shows, remarkably,

455
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:02,679
that a brief encounter
with a beverage
could see you either hired or fired.

456
00:36:02,679 --> 00:36:07,559
It's a powerful effect, and one that
might have worrying applications.

457
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,560
In the case of say,

458
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:18,279
consumer products, feeling warm
about a product presumably would
make you more likely to buy it.

459
00:36:18,279 --> 00:36:20,559
Feeling warm
about a spokesperson may make you

460
00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:23,640
be more likely to listen to that
person and trust their judgment.

461
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,760
So beware politicians handing
you cups of coffee, right?

462
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,359
Essentially yes.

463
00:36:28,359 --> 00:36:32,199
People say, "How can you get these
effects with such a small
manipulation

464
00:36:32,199 --> 00:36:34,640
"and moving people's behaviour?"

465
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:39,199
And we also get a little defensive
when we hear that and, "I don't know!

466
00:36:39,199 --> 00:36:41,600
"It just keeps working!"

467
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,039
We do these things and they work and
that's... "Sorry, but they do,"

468
00:36:45,039 --> 00:36:49,719
and now our job is to understand and
try to explain to people why that is.

469
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:54,639
Why the human mind is constructed
in the way that you can get
these effects at all.

470
00:36:54,639 --> 00:36:58,640
If you think that priming is a
little hard to take, meet a man

471
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:03,120
who believes that our decisions are
affected by what we don't yet know.

472
00:37:14,240 --> 00:37:19,239
Dean Radin
is one of the world's leading
researchers into psychic phenomena.

473
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,639
There is a certain taboo
about this topic.

474
00:37:24,639 --> 00:37:31,440
When science evolved away from the
paranormal and the supernatural,
there has been certain pieces

475
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:36,720
of our ancient heritage
that were left aside.

476
00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:40,560
Telepathy and clairvoyance
and precognition and premonition.

477
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,760
I'm interested in expanding what
we currently know,

478
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:48,160
which almost by definition means
you're challenging known theories,

479
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,720
and people don't like
their theories to be challenged,

480
00:37:51,720 --> 00:37:53,160
so...oh, well.

481
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:06,599
If you've ever wondered
if premonitions are more
than ordinary anticipation,

482
00:38:06,599 --> 00:38:13,080
if jumping out of the way just
before that tree fell down was more
than coincidence, you are not alone.

483
00:38:14,919 --> 00:38:21,519
Dr Radin has designed an experiment
that has made many mainstream
scientists very upset indeed,

484
00:38:21,519 --> 00:38:27,680
because he believes it provides
proof of precognition -
the ability to look into the future.

485
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:33,119
One of the implications of this
for decision-making

486
00:38:33,119 --> 00:38:35,160
is that when we make a decision,

487
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:39,639
we think of it in conventional terms
is we're making the decision

488
00:38:39,639 --> 00:38:41,919
based on our memory
and our expectations.

489
00:38:41,919 --> 00:38:46,719
It's all past stuff
which is processed in the way that
allows us to make the decision.

490
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:50,599
What these experiments suggest is
probably a lot of the decision-making

491
00:38:50,599 --> 00:38:54,399
is based on the past, but some of it
is based on what is about to occur.

492
00:38:58,559 --> 00:39:04,359
Knowing the future when it comes
to making a decision would
be pretty handy for anybody,

493
00:39:04,359 --> 00:39:10,599
but there are professions
where such a skill could mean the
difference between life and death.

494
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:19,959
These men are three
of the best pilots in America.

495
00:39:19,959 --> 00:39:23,719
They are graduates of the US
Navy's legendary Top Gun programme.

496
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,919
Lts Snodgrass, Kamir and Appazzato

497
00:39:30,919 --> 00:39:35,320
were so good,
they stayed on as instructors.

498
00:39:38,439 --> 00:39:45,319
What makes them so successful is
their ability to make decisions and,
more importantly, predictions

499
00:39:45,319 --> 00:39:49,479
upside down,
being crushed by gravity,
travelling at the speed of sound.

500
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,119
It's a 3D dynamic environment and
they're constantly changing over time

501
00:40:04,119 --> 00:40:07,360
so you have to be very quick
with your thought process.

502
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:11,719
You've got to take into account
your own aircraft's energy,
your altitude, attitude,

503
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:15,239
how many knots you have in the jet,
how fast you are going.

504
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:19,559
You have got to take all that
in relationship
to your opponent or the threat.

505
00:40:23,199 --> 00:40:26,160
And it's all happening at three,
four, five hundred knots.

506
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,680
Check left. Left.

507
00:40:31,319 --> 00:40:35,039
There are a lot of things
to consider in a dogfight.

508
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:46,040
The Top Gun pilots
are at the top of their tree,

509
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:50,639
but even at this level some pilots
are consistently better -

510
00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:54,159
better at anticipation
and better in combat.

511
00:40:54,159 --> 00:40:57,720
It does make you wonder why
some pilots are better able to

512
00:40:57,720 --> 00:41:01,839
grasp spatial concepts better
than others but most people
just chalk it up

513
00:41:01,839 --> 00:41:07,440
to better spatial orientation,
a better ability to take
concepts on board than other pilots.

514
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:16,839
The unexplained aptitude of the few
is difficult to clearly define

515
00:41:16,839 --> 00:41:20,720
but its effect
is borne out by hard data.

516
00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:27,080
In every armed conflict since World
War One, just 4% of fighter pilots

517
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:31,239
have accounted for 40%
of total kills.

518
00:41:42,759 --> 00:41:47,479
The military call this
exceptional situational awareness,

519
00:41:47,479 --> 00:41:50,559
but it might be
that some pilots are simply able

520
00:41:50,559 --> 00:41:57,560
to exploit the precognitive
abilities that we,
perhaps, might all possess.

521
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,920
Some pilots have an innate ability
to do this better than others.

522
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:04,839
Whether you call that prediction or
projection, I don't know what it is.

523
00:42:04,839 --> 00:42:07,679
I'd like to think it was training,
but there are some pilots

524
00:42:07,679 --> 00:42:10,160
who are innately better
fighter pilots than others.

525
00:42:18,519 --> 00:42:21,279
Turn...this.

526
00:42:21,279 --> 00:42:26,640
Dr Dean Radin is hoping that he can
prove that what the pilots call
prediction could in fact be

527
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:32,120
precognition - a real ability
to actually sense the future.

528
00:42:36,359 --> 00:42:41,400
His experiment records
a person's emotional response
to a series of pictures.

529
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:45,439
The images are from an
internationally approved
clinical test

530
00:42:45,439 --> 00:42:50,160
for emotional response and are
selected by the computer at random.

531
00:42:52,319 --> 00:42:55,679
Well, what we're expecting to see
is that after a picture is seen,

532
00:42:55,679 --> 00:43:00,679
if it's an emotional picture, you'll
get a large rise in skin conductance.

533
00:43:00,679 --> 00:43:06,039
And after a calm picture
the person remains calm,
it'll continue to go down.

534
00:43:06,039 --> 00:43:10,200
So far so good, and unremarkable.

535
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:17,319
But what Dean is looking for
is what happens BEFORE the randomly
selected picture is shown.

536
00:43:17,319 --> 00:43:21,159
What we hope to see then is that
before the emotional picture,

537
00:43:21,159 --> 00:43:23,600
skin conductance
will already begin to go up

538
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,640
and before the calm pictures,
skin conductance will remain low.

539
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:34,119
And if that occurs, then
it shows that there is some

540
00:43:34,119 --> 00:43:38,520
aspect of us that is able to outguess
what is otherwise a random process.

541
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:48,200
If this happens, then Dean
will have tangible evidence of
an ability to sense the future.

542
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:57,319
But for the experiment to carry
any weight, the effect has
to be observed consistently.

543
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,399
Well, it if happens completely
randomly, it's guessing.

544
00:44:03,399 --> 00:44:08,600
If it happens in such a way so
that it is systematic then
it suggests that it's not guessing,

545
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,200
but it's actually some
perception of the future.

546
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:17,279
Dean's analysed the data
from his experiments.

547
00:44:17,279 --> 00:44:23,280
This is the sector, the period before
the picture appeared, and as you see,

548
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:27,399
in both cases anticipation
of what you are about to see.

549
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:33,439
They show that for three or more
seconds before an image is shown,

550
00:44:33,439 --> 00:44:41,319
skin conductance does change
consistently in anticipation
of that future image.

551
00:44:41,319 --> 00:44:45,799
Incredibly, the blue graph shows
that before a calm picture,

552
00:44:45,799 --> 00:44:48,160
the anticipation is calm,

553
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,279
but before an emotional picture
is shown,

554
00:44:51,279 --> 00:44:55,600
the red trace shows that
the anticipation is emotional too.

555
00:44:58,399 --> 00:45:00,839
How can it possibly be
that there's a difference

556
00:45:00,839 --> 00:45:06,039
in your anticipation for one thing
that you haven't seen as opposed to
another thing that you haven't seen?

557
00:45:06,039 --> 00:45:09,479
Well, that's the question.
We know that the laws

558
00:45:09,479 --> 00:45:14,520
of classical mechanics and quantum
mechanics are time symmetric,
which means that there is...

559
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:19,679
The direction of time
for elementary particles

560
00:45:19,679 --> 00:45:24,399
So you can then ask the question,
what would happen
in the case of consciousness?

561
00:45:24,399 --> 00:45:27,720
Since we don't really understand
consciousness very well,

562
00:45:27,720 --> 00:45:32,640
could it reach into this domain
where time symmetry rules,
which is fundamental physics?

563
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,800
So here's a moment
of a stimulus occurring.

564
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,679
The time symmetry would predict that
whatever is occurring to the right

565
00:45:39,679 --> 00:45:42,880
side should be symmetric
to some extent on the left.

566
00:45:49,759 --> 00:45:53,799
If time symmetry really does affect
our experience of reality,

567
00:45:53,799 --> 00:45:59,160
then Dean might have provided an
explanation for exceptional pilots.

568
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:03,239
Though not everyone
is happy with the idea.

569
00:46:05,159 --> 00:46:07,199
As an aviator,
I can't predict the future.

570
00:46:07,199 --> 00:46:13,200
I can't know with 100% certainty
where his aircraft is going to be,
but based on my ability

571
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:18,800
to understand orientation of objects
in three dimensions and my ability
and the training I've received,

572
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:23,360
I can get a good idea - project
three to five seconds down the road

573
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,520
where his aircraft is going to be.

574
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,359
You can make an educated projection
or prediction about what is

575
00:46:31,359 --> 00:46:34,439
happening in a few seconds but you
can never know with 100% certainty.

576
00:46:40,999 --> 00:46:46,599
We have access to our future,
at least to the near-term future,
and by having access

577
00:46:46,599 --> 00:46:51,840
I mean that we are getting
information from our future
and it influences our present.

578
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:00,080
You're driving along the highway
and if you get a bad feeling,

579
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,480
you probably ought to pay attention
to it cos maybe the bad feeling

580
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,000
is relating to an event
which is about to occur.

581
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:09,560
And if you make the wrong decision
on the highway you could end up dead.

582
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:24,760
If you really are trying
to make better decisions,
then our final advice is this.

583
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:31,520
Be aware of your
potential for manipulation.

584
00:47:33,159 --> 00:47:38,480
Realise that you post-rationalise
your inconvenient bad decisions.

585
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:42,279
And finally, recognise
that whatever intuition is,

586
00:47:42,279 --> 00:47:50,199
it shouldn't be ignored, because
it might just give you the edge.

587
00:47:50,199 --> 00:47:54,200
If you'd like even more information
about how to make better decisions

588
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:58,640
or would like to download this
week's video podcast,

589
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:02,199
visit our website -

590
00:48:02,199 --> 00:48:06,080
Now it's time for you
to make a decision -

591
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,760
what are you going to watch next?
Good luck.

592
00:48:15,839 --> 00:48:18,200
Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd

593
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,799
E-mail: subtitling@bbc.co.uk