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Every so often, our planet
reminds us just how powerful it is

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Around the world, millions live under
the threat of an earthquake disaster;

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killing thousands and destroying
entire cities in seconds.

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Earthquakes don't kill people...
buildings do.

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What can science tell us
about the fury of our Angry Earth?

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In the last century, more than
1 million people died in earthquakes.

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Over the next century, it is feared
that number could increase ten-fold.

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Earthquakes really pose little
direct danger to the human body;

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people can't be shaken to death in a quake

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The real hazard is when an earthquake
strikes in a heavily populated urban area.

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Can science do anything to protect us?

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Might we one day be able to predict the quakes?

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Or are we at the mercy of
this awesome power of nature?

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The quest begins by going back to basics,
looking at what triggers an earthquake
in the first place.

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Earthquakes are the sudden,
explosive release of enormous pressures
that build up within the crust of the planet

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To understand how such pressures are caused
- just look deep into the earth.

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Its crust is formed from huge oceanic and
continental blocks, called 'tectonic plates'

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and they rest on the mantle that lies below

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The plates are constantly -
but very slowly - shifting.

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They move some two inches a year
driven by movements in the mantle

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building up vast pressures
along the plate margins.

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Meet Dr Lucy Jones, Scientist in Charge of
the Southern California Earthquake Hazards Team.

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There are 12 major plates that we
look at on the surface of the earth

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And any place they come together
is going to be a place we have
a concentration of earthquakes.

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Over time, the edges where
tectonic plates grind past each other

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deform and break, creating cracks
known as 'faults'.

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Eventually pressures reach a critical point
when rocks on each side of the fault slip

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- and snap into a new position.

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A way to understand this is
actually snapping your fingers.

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If you snap your fingers
you put a surface together,

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you have friction that keeps it sliding,

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you push hard enough you overcome the friction

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and we release a wave that
makes the ground vibrate.

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And the bigger the surface
is the more energy you've got.

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And the bigger the earthquake we have.

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The spot on the earth's surface above where
the snap happens is called the 'epicenter'.

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Once triggered, the earthquake
is stopping for no-one.

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It can travel along the entire fault-line.

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It's a bit like tearing a napkin.

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Earthquakes have to happen over a surface

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They don't happen at the epicentre.

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But they begin at the epicentre.

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And then you have a rupture
that moves down the fault.

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Now if I pull like this
its too strong and it won't break.

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I put a crack in it and once
I got it started I got a rupture
that will move down the napkin.

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Once started an earthquake
just keeps on rolling,

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releasing all that pressure between the plates

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The longer the fault, the bigger the earthquake

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To have a really devastating earthquake
you need to have a very large event.

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Very near to a very large number of people.

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More and more people are living in cities
as the global population grows ever faster.

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The population of Los Angeles
has tripled in the last 60 years.

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Such growth leads to what
scientists term the 'mega city',

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defined as having a population
in excess of eight million people.

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In the world today
there are almost 15 'mega cities'.

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Some, such as Los Angeles,
Tokyo and Mexico City, are under
direct threat from an earthquake.

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So, close to 100 million city dwellers face
the constant danger of an earthquake disaster

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And still more people pour in every year.

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As the buildings get higher
and higher so does the danger.

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Earthquakes don't kill people.
Buildings do.

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And we have many cities of the world that
are located near some of these big faults.

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And proximity can be 90% of the game
in earthquakes.

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So having a fault in the city
is the recipe for real disaster.

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If a large earthquake was
to hit any of these mega cities,

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the destruction could be catastrophic,
potentially claiming millions of lives.

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And major cities have been hit
by large quakes in the past.

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1906 in San Francisco or 1923 in Tokyo

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we can see the biggest earthquakes
do an overwhelming level of damage

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and we have many, many more people
living in both those cities right now
than we did a hundred years ago.

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If financial centres such as these
were hit by a large quake today,

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the entire global economy would be shaken.

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A natural disaster leading to
an economic downward spiral that
could last for months or years

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So, it's more critical than ever that
science seeks a reliable way of predicting
where and when the next big strike will occur

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One region has had more large
earthquakes than anywhere else.

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The Pacific Rim circles
the entire Pacific tectonic plate:

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from the South China Seas,
across the Californian coast
and down to South America

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Volcanoes dotted along its length
give it the nickname the 'Ring of Fire'.

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The largest earthquake ever
recorded happened here.

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In 1960 the awesome,
magnitude 9.5 quake shook southern Chile,

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triggering enormous landslides
and killing over 2000 people.

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The magnitude of an earthquake is measured
using a system called the Richter Scale,

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which ranges from 1 to 10.

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With each higher number,
the power increases tenfold.

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A magnitude 5.5 quake,
for instance, is more powerful
than a Hiroshima-sized nuclear bomb.

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Yet an earthquake measuring 9.5
on the Richter Scale is, incredibly,
100,000 times more powerful than the 5.5

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An earthquake that big is more
than a million times as powerful
as the Hiroshima blast of 1945.

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A 9.5 striking a mega city would
bring devastating destruction,

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upping the ante for scientists
looking to predict the next 'Big One'.

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But, before scientists have any
chance of fore-telling the future,

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they need to analyse the disasters of the past

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We know that if a large earthquake was
to hit one of the world's mega cities,

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the human cost would be overwhelming,
with the potential to claim millions of lives.

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And earthquakes through history have shown
just how great the death toll can be.

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America's deadliest earthquake
occurred in 1906.

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It's April 18th and San Francisco is hit
by an estimated magnitude 8.3 quake.

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The quake itself is devastating.

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But it is the resulting firestorm, lasting
4 days, that totally destroys the city.

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And kills more than 3,000 people.

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But the highest-ever body count
has come from earthquakes in China.

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One 16th century earthquake reputedly
killed almost 850,000 people.

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And more recently, the 'Great Tangshan'
earthquake of 1976 measured a magnitude 8
on the Richter scale.

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It killed three quarters of a million

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Earthquakes take their toll in other ways too

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Livelihoods are destroyed
and economies ruined.

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The costliest earthquake of all time
happened in Japan in 1995.

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Early one January morning, the city
of Kobe is struck by a 6.9 earthquake.

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In less than 30 seconds, at least
120,000 buildings are destroyed;

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more than 5,000 are killed; and
around 300,000 people left homeless.

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The Japanese city is rocked for just 20 seconds

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yet the quake causes 200 billion dollars
worth of property damage

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The Kobe and Tangshan earthquakes were
so costly in human and financial terms

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because they hit heavily populated,
industrialised cities.

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The most powerful earthquake ever
occurred off the coast of Chile.

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In contrast, it claimed 2,000 lives and did
just half a billion dollars worth of damage.

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The 1960 quake measured a stunning 9.5
on the Richter scale.

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But north America has a history
of massive earthquakes too.

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The most powerful ever recorded
hitting the U.S. was also in
a relatively unpopulated area.

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In 1964, a magnitude 9.2 struck
Alaska near the city of Anchorage.

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It was 2nd in size to
Chile's world record quake,

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In America, the average strong earthquake
in the past century lasts just 30 seconds.

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But the Alaska earthquake, travelling
along a fault line over 2000 miles long,

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lasts 14-times longer than that -

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for more than 400 seconds.

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It literally shook
the whole area to the ground.

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One town was totally obliterated by the quake

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But its doom had as much to do with
the type of land it was built on
as with the power of the quake itself.

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Situated at the base of a glacier,
the small Alaskan, waterfront town of
Valdez was a disaster waiting to happen.

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Built on saturated, fine-grain soils,
it had no chance of survival.

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The soft ground exaggerated
the earthquake's movements,

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leaving Valdez a broken mass
of rubble and destruction.

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Two survivors of that disaster, mother and
daughter, Gloria Day and Linda Guthrie,

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will never forget how their world tore apart.

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The people there were fishermen,
some old pioneers.

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It had false front buildings
and wooden side walks.

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It was a close nit little community.

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That afternoon, the steamship
'Chena' docks on the main pier.

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The ship is carrying the first supplies
of fresh fruit and goods of the year.

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There wasn't a lot of entertainment in old town
so it was a big thing when the ship came in.

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All the kids go down to the dock
when the ship comes in

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because the cook on the ship makes candy and
makes cookies and things like that for them.

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At 5.30, as the ship is tying up,
the town is shaken by a tremor.

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Normally when we have a tremor
it will be 15 seconds.

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A minute at the most.

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And this one just kept going on
and on and on.

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It keeps going on and on and on
for an astonishing 7 minutes.

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I could here the nails pulling out of
the boards in the house so I got scared
and started to run down the stairways.

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The movement bounced me off
the walls going down the stairs.

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The pickup was sitting in front of the house
and it was rolling back and forth 2 or 3 feet.

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I can remember thinking that we were sinking
or thinking it was the end of the world.

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The town stands on unstable sand and gravel

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When the huge quake hits, the shock waves
shake the unconsolidated ground so violently

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that virtually the entire town collapses.

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I was scared to death.

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I didn't think it was going to stop and
I thought it was the end of the world.

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That land at the water front opened
up like a submarine landslide.

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You could see the Chena
from our house up in the air.

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Within seconds the pier collapses
and the sea engulfs the dock,
swallowing everything.

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The entire waterfront is pulled into the sea.

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The longshoreman and people that were
down there on the dock just disappeared.

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Then the local oil tanks rupture,
causing a fast-spreading fire

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that destroys most buildings
left standing from the quake.

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Entire families perish.

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Soon afterwards, the entire town
is deemed geologically unsafe.

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Nothing will be built here again;
the site is abandoned for ever.

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There was a sense of awe.

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We knew that something
had happened that was catastrophic.

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The survivors would never return.

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But why was Old Valdez completely
obliterated by the earthquake?

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When a large earthquake shakes saturated land,

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the intense shaking can create
a phenomenon called liquefaction.

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Liquefaction happens where the soil
is lightly packed or sandy.

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As the ground shakes, the saturated
soil starts to behave like a liquid

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¡­ and so acts like quicksand.

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Old Valdez was built on silty,
water-drenched soil.

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It never had a chance of withstanding
7 minutes of violent earthquake shaking.

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When you shake the sand, it's just
like if you shake a canister of flour,
you'd see the level sink down.

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Old Valdez literally sank into the ground.

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The new town of Valdez is built 4 miles away.

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Little remains of the old town,
apart from a memorial to the 32 men,
women and children who lost their lives

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Terrifyingly, there are major cities
also built on just as unstable soil.

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Parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco
would face serious liquefaction hazards
if a big earthquake strikes.

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And both cities lie on areas loaded with
active faults, including the San Andreas Fault

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It's not a crack, it's not a whole.

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It's rather the place where the 2 big plates
come together and move past each other.

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You can see it through
the landscape as a straight valley

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The entire system is more than 800 miles long.

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It runs from 270 miles north of San Francisco
and ends about 200 miles south of Los Angeles.

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The two main plates of the San Andreas fault
move in opposite directions to each other.

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Here in California, Los Angeles is moving
towards San Francisco at about the same
rate as most people's finger nails grow,

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about 1 and half to 2 inches a year.

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The pressure built up by the moving plates is
released by thousands of small tremors every year

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Larger earthquakes are rare¡­

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but when they do happen they are devastating

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San Francisco is very near the San Andreas.

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And these big strike slip faults cause much
more intense shaking very near the fault

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and San Francisco is going to
get the full brunt of that.

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The last major quake to hit San Francisco
struck on October 17, 1989.

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That Tuesday, many residents were settling
down to watch the San Francisco Giants

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take on the Oakland 'A's
in the third game of the World Series.

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While many are glued to their TV sets,
the quake strikes.

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For 15 seconds, a magnitude 7.1 quake
rocks the San Francisco area.

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The Bay Bridge is damaged and parts
of the Nimitz Freeway Collapses.

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The quake injures over 3500 people

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and causes massive damage to
20,000 buildings all over the Bay Area.

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Despite all this destruction,
fatalities are relatively modest:
63 people lost their lives.

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City officials were stunned
that so many apparently 'earthquake
proof' structures had collapsed.

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The city of San Francisco had, after all,
taken wide-ranging measures to try and
ensure their buildings were earthquake proof

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Yet on a single block, one building had collapsed
while the one beside it had escaped untouched.

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It made little sense.

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so why do some buildings collapse,
while others remain unscathed?

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and how will we be able to protect ourselves
from the devastating effects of earthquakes?

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In the United States and Japan,
major cities under threat carry out
extensive construction programs

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to try and make their buildings earthquake proof

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But even with these precautions in place,

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when an earthquake strikes,
many buildings still collapse.

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In the earthquake that shook
the Japanese city of Kobe, in 1995,

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more than 120,000 buildings were damaged

218
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,750
But not all the structures fell down.

219
00:23:09,100 --> 00:23:14,650
Some buildings collapse because of
the effects of 'earthquake shock frequency,

220
00:23:14,700 --> 00:23:19,550
where mere vibrations can bring
down a multi-storey building.

221
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:28,950
To illustrate how such a thing can
happen, Dr Lucy Jones uses the music
frequencies created by a cello.

222
00:23:29,700 --> 00:23:35,850
Faults produce earthquakes for much
the same reason that this string will
produce a note when I push my bow on it.

223
00:23:36,300 --> 00:23:42,550
We can actually use the instrument
and the music we make as
an analogy for earthquakes

224
00:23:44,300 --> 00:23:49,650
When two huge fault plates rub together,
like a bow drawn across a string,

225
00:23:49,700 --> 00:23:54,650
the friction produces vibrations
across a range of 'frequencies'.

226
00:23:55,100 --> 00:24:00,250
just as the note produced on the instrument
depends on the length of the string.

227
00:24:04,300 --> 00:24:10,450
Depending on their size and construction, every
building resonates with a different frequency.

228
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,450
When the earthquake frequency
matches a building's frequency,

229
00:24:15,500 --> 00:24:22,450
the vibrations can cause it to shake
even more violently than its neighbor,
and eventually collapse.

230
00:24:33,300 --> 00:24:38,650
Across the U.S, many cities have tried
to build structures that won't fall down.

231
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:48,050
Los Angeles has put enormous
effort into making the entire city
as earthquake proof as possible.

232
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,950
But when California's last
major quake rocked Los Angeles¡­

233
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,850
¡­once again many buildings
were shaken to the ground.

234
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:10,050
January 17th, 1994 at 4.30 in the morning,

235
00:25:10,100 --> 00:25:18,050
the residents of the greater Los Angeles
area received the ultimate wake-up call
- a magnitude 6.7 earthquake.

236
00:25:18,900 --> 00:25:24,150
The city's emergency services race out
to a series of call outs

237
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,450
They need help from anyone who
had urban search and rescue training.

238
00:25:28,700 --> 00:25:34,550
One man with such training is Captain Wayne
Ibers, of the Los Angeles Fire Department.

239
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,350
He was one of the first to the disaster zone.

240
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,550
It was very surreal.

241
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,050
There were broken gas mains that were on fire.

242
00:25:46,100 --> 00:25:48,350
And it pretty much looked like a war zone.

243
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:56,950
One of the many buildings to crumble
in the quake is a multi-story
parking lot in Northridge.

244
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:03,950
The huge structure, larger than
two football fields, has collapsed.

245
00:26:12,500 --> 00:26:19,450
The only man there, the street cleaner Salvador
Pena, is trapped beneath the 20 tons of rubble.

246
00:26:19,500 --> 00:26:25,050
The 3-storey parking lot has fallen
on top of him, pinning him inside his vehicle

247
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:32,150
Wayne Ibers was a senior firefighter at the scene

248
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,950
I thought I don't know
how are we gonna do this.

249
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:41,150
The task appears overwhelming
but he has to come up with a plan quickly

250
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:48,250
First they have to get into the flattened building

251
00:26:48,700 --> 00:26:51,050
There were some breaks in the concrete.

252
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,050
We had to widen those with jack hammers.

253
00:26:54,300 --> 00:26:59,650
Ibers and the team begin to strategically
dismantle the many layers of concrete.

254
00:27:02,500 --> 00:27:04,950
They have to work fast.

255
00:27:05,500 --> 00:27:08,650
Ibers knows that every second counts.

256
00:27:12,300 --> 00:27:17,950
The rescue team has to crawl through
the rubble, in spaces just inches high.

257
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:26,850
While the men are trying to locate
Salvadore, aftershocks threaten to
bring everything down on top of them.

258
00:27:26,900 --> 00:27:28,850
"anytime you're working in a rubble,

259
00:27:28,900 --> 00:27:34,450
you're always concerned about a secondary
collapse killing you and your team mates."

260
00:27:36,300 --> 00:27:41,850
Ibers' team carries on, knowing that
a further collapse could happen at any moment

261
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,850
At last they find the car.

262
00:27:45,900 --> 00:27:49,050
The first thing is to check
the victim is breathing.

263
00:27:52,300 --> 00:27:56,250
Salvadore's legs and right arm
are trapped under the dashboard.

264
00:27:56,300 --> 00:27:59,350
He is alive - but loosing strength.

265
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,750
When I could see Mr Pena.
I couldn't believe he was alive.

266
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:10,450
Ibers has to constantly check that the area
is safe enough for his team to continue working

267
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:17,550
The vehicle's gas tank has ruptured.
It is leaking fuel and is in danger
of going up in flames.

268
00:28:18,300 --> 00:28:24,850
The fuel is cleared,
but it is still vital for Salvadore to
be pulled to safety as soon as possible.

269
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:30,150
Two massive concrete slabs have crushed
the front and back of the car.

270
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:35,550
The rescuers are in constant fear
of the massive aftershocks.

271
00:28:38,700 --> 00:28:42,650
We had aftershocks in excess
of 5 on the Richter scale.

272
00:28:42,700 --> 00:28:44,550
Those really got your attention.

273
00:28:47,300 --> 00:28:51,650
Outside, paramedics are ready
to whisk the injured man to hospital.

274
00:28:55,100 --> 00:28:59,550
First, Salvadore has to be extracted
from the wreck of his car.

275
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:04,950
Powerful airbags raise the crushing
concrete by a few vital inches.

276
00:29:06,500 --> 00:29:13,550
Then the specialist hydraulic cutters,
and other 'jaws of life', get to work,
cutting the vehicle apart.

277
00:29:16,500 --> 00:29:23,350
Ibers' major worry is that in
the process of trying to rescue Salvadore,
he might actually kill him.

278
00:29:24,900 --> 00:29:31,150
He knows that relieving the weight
off Salvadore's compressed legs
could cause 'crush syndrome';

279
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:36,050
a condition that can lead to shock,
kidney failure and death.

280
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,750
Salvadore is finally pulled free.

281
00:29:51,300 --> 00:29:54,950
His thighs have been crushed
to just two inches in width.

282
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,550
and doctors are able to save Salvadore's legs

283
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:05,050
he survives. Even more amazingly,
he did not have a broken bone in his body.

284
00:30:05,100 --> 00:30:09,350
and many other victims were
less fortunate than Salvadore.

285
00:30:11,300 --> 00:30:16,550
Fifty-seven people died and
9,000 were seriously injured

286
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,050
And with the constant movement
of tectonic plates,

287
00:30:21,100 --> 00:30:25,750
it's only a matter of time before
another strong quake hits a major city.

288
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:32,850
So what can we do to prepare ourselves
for when the next 'Big One' hits?

289
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:40,250
Since the Los Angeles' quake of '94,
building codes have been tightened.

290
00:30:40,700 --> 00:30:45,050
Responses to a massive 'mega-city'
earthquake are being improved.

291
00:30:45,100 --> 00:30:48,550
New facilities are being built
to train rescuers.

292
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:54,550
At College Station, Texas, a state of the art
'mini city' has been specially designed.

293
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:03,850
'Disaster City' is the home of
the 'Emergency Operations Training Centre'.

294
00:31:06,900 --> 00:31:15,950
This training facility has been designed
to replicate exactly what urban search
and rescue teams will encounter
when they enter a disaster zone.

295
00:31:16,900 --> 00:31:22,850
Established in the year 2000,
the 6 million dollar site covers 52 acres.

296
00:31:22,900 --> 00:31:27,950
Every year, it trains hundreds of rescue
specialists from all over the world.

297
00:31:28,900 --> 00:31:33,550
The base also has an international
rescue team on constant standby;

298
00:31:34,900 --> 00:31:37,850
capable of preparing equipment within minutes

299
00:31:37,900 --> 00:31:42,950
and flying to any part of the world
to help in search and rescue efforts.

300
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:52,150
The terrible, instantly destructive
nature of earthquakes is clear.

301
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:56,950
But earthquakes also pose other,
less immediately obvious dangers.

302
00:31:58,700 --> 00:32:01,750
these dangers are studied by Costas Synolakis,

303
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:06,750
a professor of Civil Engineering in
the University of Southern California.

304
00:32:09,300 --> 00:32:17,650
Earthquakes are catalysts for another deadly
force - the overwhelming power of - Tsunami

305
00:32:23,700 --> 00:32:31,750
In 2004, the world was woken up to the deadly
side effect of an earthquake - the Tsunami

306
00:32:39,900 --> 00:32:49,350
On the December, 26th, a magnitude 9
earthquake struck off the coast of Indonesia,
triggering a series of huge waves

307
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,150
These Tsunami spread right
across the Indian ocean,

308
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:59,450
destroying millions of homes and
killing over 200,000 people

309
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:14,250
The waves pummeled shorelines on
both continents of Asia and Africa

310
00:33:14,300 --> 00:33:19,850
They destroyed that stood in their way
then sucked out to sea

311
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,250
Entire towns were lost

312
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,950
Being the closest to the epicentre,
Indonesia was by far the worst hit

313
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:38,750
As the massive earthquake jolted
the earth's crust upwards, under the sea,

314
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,950
a vast wave was formed
in the ocean waters above.

315
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:52,850
Like throwing a giant boulder into a pond,
the water formed a circular wave
that radiated out in all directions.

316
00:33:52,900 --> 00:33:58,950
Tsunami expert Costas Synolakis
explains the power of the waves

317
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:04,050
And in the deep ocean the tsunami
will move incredibly fast.
It will reach 500miles per hour.

318
00:34:06,300 --> 00:34:12,150
Tsunamis lose hardly any of
their power as they travel through
the deep waters of the open ocean.

319
00:34:12,900 --> 00:34:18,050
But, approaching the shallower water
close to land, the huge waves slow down

320
00:34:18,100 --> 00:34:20,850
and that's when the increase in height.

321
00:34:21,900 --> 00:34:27,850
When they reach land, even after traversing
an ocean, the results are catastrophic.

322
00:34:42,300 --> 00:34:45,350
Tsunamis are a very underrated hazard.

323
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:52,950
In the past half century tsunamis have
killed more people in the United states
than all the earthquakes combined.

324
00:35:02,300 --> 00:35:09,250
People can be sitting on a beach,
totally unsuspecting when
suddenly a tsunami will come in.

325
00:35:09,300 --> 00:35:16,250
And everyone who is sitting on the beach,
will get completely destroyed.

326
00:35:18,500 --> 00:35:24,550
Tsunamis like the 2004 Asian disaster
happen in all the world's oceans,

327
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,050
but are most common in the Pacific,
around the Ring of Fire.

328
00:35:31,100 --> 00:35:33,650
Small tsunami are common.

329
00:35:34,700 --> 00:35:40,050
But waves of 100 feet or more have
been recorded on rare occasions.

330
00:35:45,900 --> 00:35:50,450
The largest earthquake ever recorded,
the 1960 in Chile,

331
00:35:50,500 --> 00:35:54,150
sent an enormous tsunami
across the Pacific Ocean.

332
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:05,150
The wave travelled half way
across the world in just 22 hours -
engulfing the coast of Japan.

333
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:23,150
The United States, too, has suffered
the terrifying effects of the tsunami.

334
00:36:25,100 --> 00:36:29,950
The last major one to hit the US
mainland arrived in 1964.

335
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:36,350
The huge earthquake that rattled Alaska,
generated a series of tsunamis.

336
00:36:38,300 --> 00:36:45,750
The waves climbed to heights of more than
220 feet - as high as a 31-storey building

337
00:36:49,300 --> 00:36:58,150
Moving at high speed, they reached as
far south as Crescent City in California
- devastating 29 city blocks

338
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:02,850
The effects of the wave were seen
as far away as South Africa.

339
00:37:04,300 --> 00:37:12,250
But in 1998, a totally different
type of tsunami changed how scientists
study these devastating waves.

340
00:37:12,300 --> 00:37:20,650
Up until 1998 we thought that all giant
tsunamis were generated by big earthquakes
like the 1964 Alaskan earthquake.

341
00:37:20,700 --> 00:37:27,550
But in 1998, a relatively modern earthquake in
Papua New Guinea changed our entire perspective

342
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:34,050
July 17th, 1998, a magnitude
7 quake rocks Papua New Guinea.

343
00:37:38,900 --> 00:37:43,650
About 12,000 people inhabit
the villages up and down the coastline;

344
00:37:43,700 --> 00:37:47,750
living close to the waterline
in traditional wooden houses.

345
00:37:55,500 --> 00:37:59,650
Within minutes of the earthquake,
a roaring noise is heard.

346
00:38:00,500 --> 00:38:04,250
People on the beach see
the ocean dramatically recede.

347
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,650
A mysterious dark line appears on the horizon

348
00:38:09,100 --> 00:38:15,550
As the wave approaches, the villagers
begin to run away, but too late.

349
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:28,450
The 50-foot wave swept them all
away and destroying the villages

350
00:38:28,500 --> 00:38:31,350
More than 2000 people die.

351
00:38:36,100 --> 00:38:43,950
What astonishes the scientists is
the fact that a relatively modest quake
could cause such a devastating wave.

352
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:51,850
Scientists had previously thought that
tsunamis could only be caused by huge
earthquakes directly under the seabed.

353
00:38:51,900 --> 00:38:57,250
Here we have an earthquake
the likes of which we get somewhere
around the world about once a week.

354
00:38:57,300 --> 00:38:59,550
It generates a huge wave.

355
00:39:02,900 --> 00:39:04,750
And then the question is why?

356
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:10,650
At Papua New Guinea, the earthquake
epicentre was on land, not underwater.

357
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:17,250
But the shock-waves rippled offshore,
setting off a massive underwater landslide.

358
00:39:17,300 --> 00:39:26,750
Sediment and rock spewed across
the ocean floor, displacing vast
quantities of water creating the wave.

359
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,250
But could this happen elsewhere?

360
00:39:33,300 --> 00:39:37,950
Papua New Guinea made scientists take
a fresh look at coastlines around the world;

361
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,150
seeking similar, offshore formations.

362
00:39:42,300 --> 00:39:45,550
Their research led to a chilling discovery.

363
00:39:45,700 --> 00:39:51,750
They identified many places
off California very similar to
the Papua New Guinea coastline.

364
00:39:54,700 --> 00:40:00,150
Off San Diego, off Los Angeles,
off Santa Babara, off Monterey Bay.

365
00:40:01,100 --> 00:40:08,150
Just a few miles off the coast of
California, lies a multitude of similar,
unstable, underwater canyons.

366
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:12,450
Scientists are worried that small quakes,
along the San Andreas fault,

367
00:40:12,500 --> 00:40:18,350
could cause any of these underwater canyons
to collapse - and create a major tsunami.

368
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,550
How likely is it that
a tsunami will strike here?

369
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:28,050
The dangers from tsunamis
in California is very real.

370
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:36,550
I'm afraid that in my lifetime we're going
to experience a tsunami in California.

371
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:43,450
It's not clear how big this tsunami
will be but there is a clear danger.

372
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:51,650
A network of detection devices is in place

373
00:40:51,700 --> 00:40:53,850
But their warnings may come too late -

374
00:40:53,900 --> 00:40:58,550
an earthquake-triggered tsunami
could reach the coast in just minutes

375
00:41:02,100 --> 00:41:06,750
Only predicting the earthquake itself,
could offer any hope for this coast.

376
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,750
How possible is that?

377
00:41:10,100 --> 00:41:12,650
Predicting earthquakes is very hard.

378
00:41:12,700 --> 00:41:15,350
Predicting tsunamis is even harder.

379
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,550
If we had reliable ways to predict earthquakes

380
00:41:21,100 --> 00:41:24,650
then we could predict when a tsunami strikes

381
00:41:24,700 --> 00:41:29,450
and this would give us extra warning time
to evacuate more people from the beach.

382
00:41:29,500 --> 00:41:32,350
And then we will save many more lives.

383
00:41:33,300 --> 00:41:37,850
An earthquake-generated tsunami
can happen at any time.

384
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:44,550
Science must develop techniques
that will predict such an event.

385
00:41:54,400 --> 00:42:01,450
At UCLA this man is working on a formula
that has the scientific world talking.

386
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:07,750
Could he have found the answer
to how earthquakes may be predicted?

387
00:42:18,100 --> 00:42:23,850
So far, experts know where
and why earthquakes happen;

388
00:42:25,700 --> 00:42:34,850
and that more than 100 million people
in the world's mega-cities live in
constant danger of a catastrophic quake.

389
00:42:39,300 --> 00:42:47,450
With accurate earthquake predictions,
cities could be evacuated,
and rescue services placed on high alert

390
00:42:53,400 --> 00:43:00,050
But understanding the seemingly random behavior
of earthquakes remains an elusive goal.

391
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:07,150
Humans have tried to foresee
earthquakes for thousands of years.

392
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:18,450
In the ancient world, animals and fish
were watched for any changes in behavior
that would give clues to a coming disaster.

393
00:43:19,100 --> 00:43:25,250
But, although some research suggests
that animals may change their behavior
before a major earthquake,

394
00:43:25,300 --> 00:43:28,850
it is, to say the least,
an unreliable method.

395
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:37,450
Serious scientific study into prediction
only began in the 1970's.

396
00:43:37,700 --> 00:43:42,950
Scientists back then investigated
various methods of prediction.

397
00:43:43,100 --> 00:43:46,350
Some thought for a while
they had cracked it.

398
00:43:47,300 --> 00:43:50,350
They carried on with wild
and wonderful theories -

399
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:54,450
but remained dogged by
the inconsistency of their results.

400
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,250
Nobody's had repeatable success¡­

401
00:44:06,300 --> 00:44:07,950
Some people have been lucky¡­

402
00:44:08,300 --> 00:44:10,550
But nobody's been lucky twice.

403
00:44:13,500 --> 00:44:19,150
Until recently, science seemed no
closer to finding a reliable method.

404
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:26,950
The current technique relies on studying
the past activity of known faults.

405
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:32,050
We can tell where they're most likely;
what magnitude we're likely to have;

406
00:44:32,100 --> 00:44:35,350
what the consequences of any
of those earthquakes are.

407
00:44:36,900 --> 00:44:41,750
Experts are convinced, for instance,
that an earthquake will hit Los Angeles or Tokyo

408
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:44,550
because they have done repeatedly in the past

409
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:49,350
The problem is when - and how big will it be?

410
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:54,050
Most scientists still believe that
earthquakes are impossible to predict.

411
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:00,050
But there could now be a major breakthrough

412
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:08,950
One of the world's leading seismologists,
is challenging the accepted thinking
in earthquake prediction.

413
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:18,750
Professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok
is Russian and still speaks with
the sounds of his native tongue

414
00:45:22,100 --> 00:45:31,150
We look at the symptoms of
approaching earthquake, like the doctor
looking at the symptoms of disease

415
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:39,850
He heads an international research team,
made up of experts in pattern recognition,

416
00:45:39,900 --> 00:45:47,050
geosciences, seismology and chaos theory
from institutions around the world.

417
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:59,750
He has spent over 20 years fine-tuning
and honing his revolutionary technique.

418
00:46:02,500 --> 00:46:05,050
His method is quite simple.

419
00:46:05,100 --> 00:46:08,950
He's worked out a formula
to predict earthquakes.

420
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:17,150
To get a result, they feed into
the formula the number, size and frequency
of earth vibrations in a given area.

421
00:46:21,700 --> 00:46:28,450
The result that the calculation
comes up with gives the location and
a ballpark date of the earthquake.

422
00:46:35,900 --> 00:46:39,950
The formula is being continuously fine-tuned

423
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:48,450
In the future he hopes to be able to
pin-point the date of an earthquake
to within weeks - or even days.

424
00:46:53,300 --> 00:46:56,350
But the theory is controversial.

425
00:46:58,900 --> 00:47:02,950
I'm a scientist. I always believe that
knowledge is better than no knowledge.

426
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:07,950
And if we could do it, I want to do it and
I'd like to find ways in which we can use it

427
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,550
There's been heated debate,

428
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:17,250
but at the moment, the Keilis-Borok theory is
the only viable option that science can offer

429
00:47:19,500 --> 00:47:22,850
Has he found the scientific Holy Grail?

430
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:28,450
So far, he and his team have
had very positive results.

431
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:38,750
In June 2003 his team predicted
an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.4 would
strike Central California within 9 months

432
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:44,550
Six months later, a 6.5 did strike San Simeon

433
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:49,950
And then they predicted a magnitude
7 in the Hokkaido region of Japan

434
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:54,650
- less than 3 months later,
an even larger quake struck

435
00:47:56,500 --> 00:48:03,850
Keilis-Borok's team had hit
the earthquake prediction jackpot -
but was it no more than blind luck

436
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:10,450
Fellow seismologists suggest that Keilis-Borok
needs to make at least 10 accurate predictions

437
00:48:10,500 --> 00:48:14,050
before the results can be deemed
scientifically reliable.

438
00:48:14,100 --> 00:48:19,250
It is just a matter of time before
we will know if his theory is right.

439
00:48:21,700 --> 00:48:25,050
I do not know if Dr Keilis-Borok
will prove correct.

440
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:30,150
I hope he's correct.

441
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,150
Because if he's correct
it means prediction is possible.

442
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,350
And I'd love that to be true.
But I don' know yet.

443
00:48:43,700 --> 00:48:49,350
We have seen the terrible threats that
earthquakes and Tsunamis pose to human life;

444
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,950
the dangers to our mega-cities.

445
00:48:52,300 --> 00:48:54,350
We can't control earthquakes.

446
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,850
But science is at last attempting
to predict their arrival.

447
00:48:57,900 --> 00:49:01,650
Success would offer real hope for the future.

448
00:49:02,500 --> 00:49:16,950
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